Comdex Preview: Can You Say Internet?

Systems take a back seat to all things Internet at the tech industry's biggest show.

Tom Mainelli, PCWorld.com

LAS VEGAS-- If it ain't connected, don't bother. That seems to be the unofficial pregame mantra for the yearly Comdex computer show here this week, where vendors are showing off the latest Internet appliances, Web pads, handhelds, Net-enabled cell phones, and wireless technologies.

And what about the PC, once the mainstay of this mega trade show? It's here--and doing a few new tricks to prove it's not dead.

The big focus this year, as with the past few, is less on PCs and more on Internet-specific devices, says Rob Enderle, vice president and research leader at Giga Information Group. Chief among these products is a new crop of Internet appliances from top-shelf vendors.

Creative Strategies analyst Tim Bajarin agrees. "For the last two years we've talked about Internet appliances," Bajarin says. "This year we'll actually see some."

Internet Appliance Avalanche

Show-goers can see the recently announced Gateway Connected Touch Pad. The Internet appliance runs a brand new version of America Online's proprietary Internet service called Instant AOL. Transmeta's low-power Crusoe processor and Netscape's Gecko browsing engine power the Touch Pad. (See "Gateway Announces AOL-centric Appliance.")

Also, Microsoft is discussing its prototype Web tablet PC. The device incorporates pen-based and voice-based computing with handwriting recognition. The company is also showing a new Pocket PC made by the French firm Sagem that doubles as a cell phone. (See "Microsoft to Unveil Tablet PC."

Internet appliances from other big shooters such as Compaq, eMachines, and National Semiconductor are also expected to be shown here.

Phones and PDAs Come to Comdex

Cell-phone companies are expected in force at Comdex, with giants such as Ericsson, Motorola, and Nokia showcasing their latest mobile phone handsets with Web browsers and personal information manager functions.

Microsoft is also expected to demonstrate its upcoming personal digital assistant (PDA) phone, code-named Stinger. Manufactured by Samsung, the phone uses a slimmed down version of the Pocket PC operating system and features a mobile phone handset. (See "Pocket PC to Wed Phone.")

Wireless is also the theme of PDA leader Palm, which is expected to make announcements on its wireless strategy and a new Palm portal site.

Palm's competitors are also here in numbers. Microsoft is showcasing the latest Pocket PC devices, which come from a number of partner vendors. Handspring is unveiling some 20 Springboard expansion modules for the Visor, including the Visorphone, which turns the PDA into a mobile phone. (See "Phones and PDAs Merge at Wireless Show.")

Bluetooth Appears, and Wireless Nets Get Mean

Another perennial up-and-coming technology that will show its face at Comdex is Bluetooth, the low-powered wireless networking specification for connecting small devices such as phones, PDAs, and laptops. A handful of first-generation Bluetooth products are at the show, but Giga's Enderle says he doesn't expect Bluetooth to soar this year. "Bluetooth won't take off until next Comdex," he predicts.

Enderle expects the battle between two other wireless standards--802.11B and HomeRF--to heat up, however. The 802.11B standard took an early lead over HomeRF by offering faster throughput speeds, while HomeRF supporters touted its telephony capabilities and lower cost. Then HomeRF won a court battle to be allowed to increase its speed--and the battle promised to become more interesting. Now at least one 802.11B vendor is expected to toss its own bomb--lowering prices at Comdex to be on par with existing, slower HomeRF products, Enderle says.

"It could be the swan song for HomeRF," Enderle says. Expect HomeRF vendors to argue otherwise.

PCs Persevere

The focus of Comdex may be shifting from PCs, but don't count them out, says analyst Bajarin. Some people call this the "post-PC era" he says, but really it's the "PC-plus era." The computer is still selling phenomenally well; Bajarin expects vendors to sell 17 million to 18 million of them worldwide next year.

But PC makers aren't resting on those high sales projections; they're working to produce the next big thing. Manufacturers are showing some of the first production-level Pentium 4-based systems and optimized software at Comdex. Intel is expected to launch the chip later in November. Keen observers may also find PCs featuring the latest Advanced Micro Devices Athlon processors, paired with Double Data Rate memory.

On the mobile side, experts are watching for Transmeta and its friends to show off more mininotebooks that use the company's controversial Crusoe chip. Both Intel and AMD are likely to show new mobile processors as well.

While the standard desktop and notebook PCs are holding sway at this year's show, at least one unnamed top-tier vendor is expected to shake things up with off-site showings of a revolutionary new modular PC, Enderle says.

The PC's main unit is about the size of a PDA, and it includes the processor, hard drive, and other basic PC hardware, he says. That basic unit then slides into different modules that transform it into a handheld, a notebook-size Web pad, or a full-size desktop PC, he says.

Reaction from analysts sworn to secrecy about the product has been very good, and the device could change the way we look at PCs, Enderle says.

Is Comdex Declining?

With more than 2500 vendors and 200,000 visitors spread out over more than 1 million square feet of conference space, Comdex hardly seems to be on its deathbed. But in recent years the show has fallen increasingly out of favor with some of the high-tech elite, Enderle says.

Vendors are struggling to justify the business impact of Comdex these days, he says. While the show was once crucial to spreading the word about a new company or product, today many vendors feel it has lost its impact and is just too expensive. Other trade shows such as the Consumer Electronics Show (also in Las Vegas) and PC Expo (in New York City) are becoming more important, he says.

However, while big names such as Dell and IBM have no presence on the showroom floor, they are in Vegas talking with the press, analysts, and other industry members. Because even large, important companies can get lost in the hubbub of the Comdex floor, many companies are moving their meetings off site. It's cheaper than exhibiting, and it gives companies the opportunity to be more creative.

For example, Dell is setting up shop to discuss its latest products and services at a little house not far from the show. It's Howard Hughes's old mansion, and after business is over one night, Michael Dell, his mother, and others plan to tear the roof off the place with a 70s-style dance party.

(Cameron Crouch and Tom Spring of PCWorld.com and James Niccolai of IDG News Service contributed to this report.)